Red Dawn

Red Dawn

So there is life post Wenger after all. The slick and smooth transition from Arsene Wenger to Unai Emery was completed this week and the majority of Arsenal fans have a renewed optimism. Having previously been derided for ineptitude and dithering, the board have enabled a new era at Arsenal. The announcement of Emery was seen as a random scatter gun appointment by some pundits, but perhaps they didn’t see what recruitment process happened behind the scenes. The frontrunner Arteta appeared on the verge of being  announced until Emery emerged on Monday evening. The Spanish PSG manager had met with the hierarchy on several occasions and was being tracked for a long time according to Ivan Gazidis so the initial perceptions of a spontaneous decision have faded.

Expectations

So Arsenal fans have optimism, but of course results will damper or fire this. Wenger has left Arsenal in a mediocre position, finishing 5^th and 6^th, so expectations are measured. Emery has made strong statements so far that he will maintain Wenger’s attacking style: “I’d prefer to win 5-4 than 1-0.” There is a realism giving the financial clout of Manchester clubs but as Klopp at Liverpool has shown, good coaching can overcome financial disadvantages.

Personnel

This is the biggest question facing the club. The biggest criticism of Wenger’s regime was how certain players appeared to either lack effort or have regressed. How Emery will motivate Mesut Ozil is the going to be fascinating and also critical to his success. Ozil is still the team’s outstanding talent but the player himself and manager need to work out what is wrong with him and why he has drifted so much lately. Other main players like Ramsey, Aubamayang and Lacazette did appear motivated under Wenger so can achieve a lot under the right coaching and leadership. The future of Jack Wilshere is unclear. Having been snubbed by England for the World Cup, he will need a vote of confidence to stay and is likely to be considering his options at other clubs.

Defence

The second most important issue facing Emery. There is an argument for wholesale rebuilding of the defence. But with different coaching, the defence might improve with players being sold. Wenger’s ability as a defensive coach was a major weakness and Steve Bould seemed to have little impact in his time as his assistant. The two Spanish full backs Bellerin and Monreal might respond to a fellow countryman better. With Koselney injured for at least six months, it is likely that a new player will be signed. It is also how the team plays defensively that’s important. The exposure to counter attacks under Wenger was a team issue not just the defence. The team has been crying out for a solid defence midfielder and whether Emery sticks with Xhaka will be interesting.

The Board

The directors and primarily Stan Kroenke have been the target of Arsenal fans complaints over the last few seasons. Wenger as the front man took a lot of the blame for their failings. Emery won’t be able to act in this fall guy role so the board are more exposed in their decision-making. Gazidis has needed to step up and having pushed for a restructure, needs to deliver. Gazidis was clear in his reasoning for choosing Emery but he needs to back him with money for transfers and keep the expectations high- perpetual 6^th place finishes isn’t going to cut it.

Semi life

After hundreds of millions spent on players, Manchester City can finally say they are in the European elite. Reaching the Champions League semi finals shouldn’t be undervalued. They were the only leading English club not to get to that stage. The club had been presenting themselves to break into the elite since the UAE takeover in 2009.

What happens next may tell us more about this status. Are they here to stay? PSG were disappointing and City didn’t have to do much to achieve a 2-2 draw in France. In earlier rounds they played.

But the likelihood is that they will play either Madrid teams, Barcelona or Bayern in the semi finals. Three of these teams have comfortably beaten City since 2010. Most commentators would expect a similar outcome. However with the semi final atmosphere and a new talisman in Kevin De Bruyne, there could be a closer outcome this year. City have beaten Bayern home and away in recent years, so perhaps this might be the best option.

Elsewhere Real Madrid overturned a two goal deficit and reached their sixth successive semi final. This is a great record of consistency driven by Ronaldo’s goals, although only once have they reached the final. The quest for undecima might not quite have the same obsession as the decimal, but given their lack of La Liga success, this is Real’s best trophy opportunity. With a new manager Zidane looking to repeat the 2002 win, they may be favourites.

The other major story from the quarters was the dumping of Barcelona by Athletico Madrid. This was a repeat of the 2014 quarter defeat, the only other time since 2007 (!) that Barcelona hadn’t reached the Champions League semi final. No team has ever retained the Champions League. The last team to do so was AC Milan in 1990, under the previous format. Having looked set for another treble, Barcelona have now lost 3 crucial games in 4 and their league position has become less certain.   

The draw today presents City with a tough game. Real Madrid are now coming into form having had a very mixed season.

The final battle

This year’s Masters marks twenty years since one of the most dramatic final round collapses in a Major. Greg Norman’s losing of a six shot lead to Nick Faldo was the most painful of sporting occasions. At several previous Masters Norman had been in prime position to claim the Green Jacket only to be eclipsed, but this was by far the most self-inflicted defeat. His closing 78 turned a six shot lead into a five stroke loss, a staggering reversal of fortune.

Neither man would win another Major. Norman would come close on a few occasions. Faldo entered a decline. The 1996 Masters was an end of an era for both men and for their rivalry. Although the commiserating hug from Faldo was for the beaten man, it could have been a farewell from golfing gladiators.

Since the 1990 Open, when Faldo also blew Norman away, the two had competed for top ranking and tournaments, notably the 1993 Open won by Norman in style. The two contrasting styles made for great rivalry newspaper copy. Faldo – the grinder, who rarely played a loose shot and relentlessly and flawlessly amassed pars and birdies. Norman – the cavalier, with aggressive driving, attacking shots and the capability to launch storming final rounds. Faldo was the dedicated loner pro before most pros turned into this character. Norman was the powerful driver before club technology allowed all pros to drive like this.

There is nothing to say that the rivalry was personal, but in golfing terms, it was fierce. As the rivalry concluded twenty years ago, Faldo recalls his feeling then: 'The only time I felt sorry for someone I'd beaten'

1996 saw Faldo’s last Major and he would never be close again, missing the next three cuts. The crowning of Tiger Woods the following year by Faldo was a real passing of the baton moment. The player of the 1990s handing over to the player of the 2000s.

It was also an end of an era for European success. Apart from Jose Maria Olazabal in 1999, Europeans have failed to win the Masters since, and haven’t been close. Prior to 1996, Europe’s Big Five all dominated Masters tournaments. Faldo’s win was the seventh in nine Masters. 

1996 was a great tournament, but also a sad one. Personal pain over losing was matched by the end of a great period for golf.

An unhappy hunting ground

In Arsene’s Wenger’s 18 years at Arsenal, he has only won 4 times at Old Trafford. Facing United in their golden years means wins were bound to be scarce, but the results don’t reveal the fear factor or complex that Arsenal have had there. Two of Wenger’s heaviest defeats 6-1 in 2001 and 8-2 infamously in 2011, grate alongside a string of anaemic performances. Two of the wins in 1998 and 2002 were the finest results of Wenger’s career, but seem a long time ago now. The last win in 2006 was a from late goal from Adebayor and at the start of the season, when United teams often made sluggish starts. 

Last season was a great opportunity for Arsenal to strike a blow in the post Ferguson era, but a disappointing display against an average United was another frustrating trip for Arsenal fans.

So now an FA Cup sixth round match beckons. Both teams have been playing well, but still face many questions. Arsenal overturned a hoodoo when winning at Manchester City last month, but were well beaten at Spurs. United have only lost once in 19 games, but have been criticised for their style of play and have had a very easy run of matches. 

One factor is Rooney. He has a great record against Arsenal, scoring 9 goals and since making his name in 2002 with a last minute goal when at Everton, has relished this fixture. There seems no reason why but there’s something about beating the Arsenal.

Obviously winning the cup is the ultimate objective, but I would hesitate to argue that winning this match is more important. There has been a long disappointing run for Gooners against United. Seven successive defeats at Old Trafford and only two wins at the Emirates since 2007 present a very poor record. The post Ferguson era needs a statement from Arsenal, that they will no longer be bullied and fold over weakly.  

SEVE

You develop your own myths about your heroes. They live wholesome personal lives and are free from conflict and dispute behind the scenes. So reading Seve Ballesteros’ autobiography I was surprised to read of conflicts he had with officials, management companies, other players and his family. Of course this was maybe his personality. A fiery Spaniard whose passion to win was one of his strengths. You could never accuse him of being indifferent on the golf course. So while his talent brought him untold success, it wasn’t always happy behind the scenes. 

But first a few personal recollections. I consider myself fortunate to have seen him play a few times. Both times at Wentworth and both times winning. Once in a play off for the PGA championship, then in the World Matchplay. Although he was arguably past his peak at this time, he still produced the magic. His winning approach on the first playoff hole to beat Montgomerie was a classic Seve shot. And his legendary interactions with the crowd: “Please stand still. I know you’re nervous but I am too”. 

They say you should never meet your heroes. But you met Seve whenever he was on the course. Golf is unlike other spectator sports, as the boundaries between fans and players are often broken down. A stray drive into the crowds gives great interaction. You are only metres away from amazing players. This doesn’t happen in stadium based sports where there are clear boundaries. And as Seve strayed off the fairway much more than others, he had constant interaction. 

Was Seve an unfullfiled talent? He won 5 majors, perhaps could of won more. If his mentality had been more of the ruthless iceman like Tiger Woods or Nick Faldo then maybe. In terms of raw talent and creativity, I don’t think there has been a better player in the last 30 years. His temperament was fiery and this, when harnessed like in the Ryder cups, made him great. But in his book he talks about how the death of his father in 1986 and latterly the transition to fatherhood and married life, both took their toll on his overall performance.

He was always quite inconsistent even in his pomp. The 1979 Open was won by a great recovery from the 16th hole car park. He nearly blew a 10 shot lead and fluffed a last hole chip in his two Masters wins. Famously in the 1987 Ryder Cup he misjudged a last hole putt leaving Olazabal with a tricky return to win. But blessed with possibly the best short game in history, he could always recover from poor shots.  

The light that burns twice as bright, burns half as long. Seve died at the far too young age of 53. The miracle of Medinah at the 2012 Ryder Cup was the final chapter for the ultimate sporting hero.

Champions League Brexit

Another round of Champions League matches and another set of disappointing results for the English Premier League clubs. Between them, they have 5 wins from 16 matches this season. The results for Arsenal, throwing away a three goal lead, and Manchester City, folding to a home loss and down to nine men, were most alarming. On current form, only Chelsea, who top their group, look likely to proceed to the latter stages. 

This pattern has been similar over the last few seasons. Since Chelsea won the 2012 trophy, they have been the only one English side to reach the semi finals. In 2013 no team made beyond round 16. In the years 2005 to 2012, English clubs were in the final 7 seasons out of 8. This may be a temporary blip, but there is a sense that despite their wealth, English clubs have fallen a way behind the Spanish giants, Bayern and even Italian clubs like Juventus. 

Manchester City have retained a perverse Cityitis in Europe, where they conspire to make a hash of matches, seem lacklustre and strangely disinterested. The argument goes that they are just adjusting to continental style, but their team is made up of the cosmopolitan Euro elite. The mindset most likely is that European glory still seems like a luxury to enjoy, rather than a burning ambition. When the other Manchester club returned to the Champions League in 1993, they sought to rekindle the glory days of the 1950s and 1960s, particularly the 1968 triumph. Reviving this legacy eventually led them to winning in their sixth season back. City doesn’t have a historic European Cup legacy to draw on and they may well improve by their sixth season, but the club hasn’t invested enough. The Champions League for many players, managers and clubs elsewhere is an obsession, but City don’t seem remotely obsessed. 

For Arsenal and Arsene Wenger, it has been an obsession. Such that, he neglected the club’s domestic cup aspirations for many years. The closest he came, was most likely in 2004, when the Invincible team, seemed Invincible in Europe as well. The 5-1 win in the San Siro in November 2003, was probably Arsenal’s best ever European performance. But with matches building up, it was one trophy too much and they lost in the quarter finals to Chelsea. Arsenal did reach the 2006 final and could have won, but a self inflicted defeat, set the template for the second half of Wenger’s Arsenal career. Since the break up of the 2006 team, Arsenal have only in patched made any impact in Europe. The 2009 season ended in a semi final defeat and a fairly comprehensive one.

Chelsea look most comfortable and undefeated. The experience of their squad should take them to at least the semi finals. Mourinho has won two European cups, both in his second seasons, as he is now at Chelsea. John Terry has played in 2 finals and played in 7 semi finals. They may be slowly progressing through their group, but will most likely be one of the favourites once the quarter finals arrive. 

Liverpool will feel the most underwhelmed by their current campaign. Mostly due to expectations. When they had their previous Champions League run from 2002 to 2009, they had some incredible wins including Istanbul 2005. The squad at that time was not much better than it is now, but Rafael Benitez showed a great European knowledge. With only one win out of four, albeit two matches against Real, this has been a flat campaign. Poor domestic form has been carried into Europe. Perhaps if Suarez was still there, it could be different, but with a manager without European pedigree and a low confidence squad, the results have been poor. 

The Wenger Epoch

So Arsene Wenger has reached 18 years as Arsenal manager and he retains by some distance the  position of longest serving Premier League manager. With such a lengthy spell and all that experience, you would think he would have wider respect and wisdom. But it is unclear where he lies in the spectrum of long serving managers. Is he an Alex Ferguson or a Dario Grady? 

Wenger certainly has considerable respect in the game. He has won eight major trophies and achieved a remarkable consistency at the top end of the league. He has created elegant attacking teams, broken many records for unbeaten streaks and developed rough cut diamonds into world class players. Who knows how many more trophies he might have, had Arsenal adopted Chelsea style spending from 2004 onwards. 

Opposition fans can’t believe Arsenal supporters could consider that another manager would be better. But his critics exist. Mostly a faction of Arsenal fans who are frustrated by perceived under performing, short sighted transfer market activity and a misguided faith in certain players. Perhaps if Wenger had won his eight trophies at regular intervals, he would received measured credit. But Wenger won seven trophies in his first 7 full seasons. Then went 9 seasons without a trophy. This year’s FA Cup broke this interminable drought. So Arsenal fans lament as they know the standard has declined from Wenger epoch part 1. There is a constant craving for the new Tony Adams, the new Patrick Viera, the new Thierry Henry. These players were developed by Wenger rather than bought so money is less of a factor. But success now is driven mostly by money rather than a manager’s ability to nurture. Look at United’s panic buying this summer.

A question to be asked of Wenger is whether a change of style limited his success in the fallow years or was it really just the limited cash to continue competing with Chelsea and Manchester United. The turning point was clearly after the 2004-2005 season. Arsenal won the FA Cup by not playing well, had finished strongly in the league, but sold their captain Viera. Investing at this time may have kept Arsenal at the top, but Wenger looked to rely on new signing Alexander Hleb and the emerging Cesc Fabregas. An unproven talent at that point. The next season 2005-2006 was disappointing in the league but redeemed by a Champions League final, narrowly lost. The further sales of Lundberg, Pires and Bergkamp’s retirement broke up the Invincible team. The move to the Emirates stadium limited the spending on new players. 

The early Wenger teams had tall muscular players like Viera, Silva, Bergkamp and the inherited back four. The style was strong defence with quick counterattacking style relying on quick breaks from Pires, Henry and Lundberg. At some point around 2006, Wenger shifted to smaller nimble players adopting one touch style akin to Barcelona’s tika taka. Was the 2006 final defeat a catalyst or did Wenger see this as the route to the European holy grail? One consequence of this style shift was a lack of resilience to tough tackling technically inferior teams. Arsenal gained a reputation for weakness against these teams, especially in the north west of England, especially against Bolton. The theory was that technical talent would make these tactics irrelevant. Arsenal would just pass their way to victory. But football never works like that. 

Arsenal did make significant transfers through the barren years. Arshavin cost 15m. Rosicky - undisclosed but similar. But this was more than offset by selling the quality of Cole, Fabregas, Van Persie and Nasri. The youth players rarely made it to first team regulars, except for Wilshere or Gibbs. New signings often performed well below expectation: Gallas, Silvestre or Gervinho

These “barren” years were characterised by regular collapses of form in March and April with cup exits and dips in league form.

At this point in time Wenger may have one of his strongest squads. World cup winners mix with a core of English players and established talent like Alexis Sanchez and Aaron Ramsay. But.. but questions remain. Winning the league will be difficult for Wenger considering the depth of Chelsea and Manchester City. The Champions League does turn up occasional un-fancied winners  - Porto in 2004, Liverpool in 2005, Chelsea in 2012 - but more likely is another exit in round 16 or quarterfinals. This asks what is there left for Wenger to achieve. There is additional money to spend but his critics accuse him of myopic transfer activity - basically avoiding buying a defensive midfielder.